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We received the following from Kanyese Mwambazi in the United Kingdom
By and large, it is a strongly held political view that a party cannot win an election without winning both Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces. To a great extent this view gives some credibility to rigging argument. However, whichever angle you take on the Zambian electoral map despite PF best effort it was going to be an uphill task to unsettle the MMD. This is because MMD rural district power base had well-matched eligible voters as the PF urban district power base. A basic number crunching on eligible voters makes it clear and visible that PF and UPND needed each other as much as MMD needed them to stay apart.A basic analysis of eligible voters district by district revealed an interesting insight in that districts such as Mongu, Mumbwa, Chibombo, Lundazi, Petauke, Katete and Solwezi are as critical as Lusaka and Copperbelt based districts in deciding an outcome of an election.
Both PF and UPND went in an election disadvantaged because of lack of grassroots organisation in Western, Northwestern and Eastern provinces. As a result, a good strategist such as Mwaanga found it easy to win MMD an election just by a basic analysis of eligible voters district-by-district and not province-by-province.
For example, there were 521,082 eligible registered voters in Lusaka district but you do not need rocket science to know that you can cancel out PF Lusaka district voters’ advantage by just matching them with eligible district voters for Mumbwa (104,935), Lundazi (100,619), Chibombo (98,994), Solwezi (74,847), Kaoma (59,116), Kalabo (48,064) and Sesheke (35,188) districts.
Equally PF advantage in Ndola (131,737) district was invalidated by Chipata district (128,319).
In addition, PF voters in Kitwe (152,718) district were wiped out by Petauke (86,597) and Katete (71,122) districts.
Again, MMD made up for PF voters in Chingola district (60,693) by Chama (34,169) and Mwinilungu (51,893) districts.
In the same way, PF in both Mufulira (60,146) and Luanshya (53,970) districts were off set by just Mongu district (111,159).
Similarly, a PF vote advantage in Chililabobwe (29,638) was cut down by just Kabompo (32,398).
Now given that MMD had a ratio of 7 to 1 win advantage in its stronghold i.e. North-Western, Eastern and Central province rural districts, while PF had only a ratio advantage of 2 to 1 in its stronghold Lusaka, Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces, MMD had in theory won the polls before Zambian even went for polls.
Meanwhile, dominance of UPND in Southern province district makes all eligible voters in the polls as good as spoiled votes.
The most interesting point however is that Sata and HH knew that they needed to unite to win but choose not to and they have been punished for that. So the best they can do is to accept and congratulate MMD and its candidate His Excellence the 4th President of the Republic of Zambia Mr Rupiah Banda. The country needs to move on.
Please note that this analysis was based on eligible registered votes publicly available prior to elections.
Yes, I couldn't agree more. You see, the problem especially with Sata was that each time he saw massive crowds at his rallies, he got carried away. He forgot that not only were those crowds equaly the same people at MMD and UPND rallies, but that also Half the people there were not voters. Lusaka proves this point. Real issues in Zambian politics are won in rural areas and not Lusaka and C/B alone. Just conceed because RB won fair and Square. And mind you, i gave my vote to Sata. thats how fair and realistic we should be.
Sata is sick for the job. The man wants the job that is all he wants, and that is why he can't accept defeat. Take for instance that when he thought he was going to win, he declared that, he was going to rule Zambia for five years and not three years as stipulated by the constitution. Very embarrassing indeed. Once in state house sata will never leave. These are some of the leaders we have to avoid ruling our country. He is simply a dictator nothing else. I voted for PF but I can say that, areas not covered by PF contributed to the loss. He should leave politics to the young. PF is still strong but we need a leader who is focused. Demos about salaries and mealie meal do not make sense. Our MPs voted too so what is sata talking about. Sata should not use prices to create confusion in the country but try to find a solution to these economic problems and if he did that, he will gain a lot of support and respect. Change and gain without that we as PF will be voting to lose as usual. Time is now for PF to penetrate areas that were not covered during the last elections. Ba mudala go and rest. Enough is enough. Your petition will take years to complete. By then Rupia will have finished his term. So what is the use. Teaming with UPND was the best way forward but who was going to be president? Of course Sata would have refused to be vice or something less. That was the problem and is still a problem. As long as Sata does not join forces with others because only him should be president, then we areheaded for defeat again. Thanks, viva PF SATA SHOULD GO.
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